Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
