A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
